What Drives Consumer Choice in Space Travel? How SpaceX Used Subconscious AI for Competitive Edge in Space Tourism

One of the primary values of causal research AI rests in its capability to provide consumer insights for populations that can be difficult to contact, much less recruit for market research studies.

In the case of SpaceX, gathering insights from centi-millionaires proved difficult. This customer segment consists of investable assets of at least $100 million and includes approximately less than 30,000 people worldwide. So, they turned to Subconscious.AI.

Our platform uses synthetic respondents to simulate real human behavior at scale using AI-driven synthetic populations. Causal Modeling helps us understand the drivers behind human choices with actionable precision. These factors combined, create an impactful platform that allows you to gather insights from previously “unreachable” populations with parity on the reliability of results.

Our work with SpaceX consisted of three primary experiments:

• Mission 1: Human Spaceflight Product Marketing

• Mission 2: Help make humanity an interplanetary species

• Bonus Mission 3: Comparison between competing offerings to design new products

The experiments identified clear consumer preferences across a variety of attributes, established consumers’ willingness to pay, and suggested opportunities for new products.

The missions, in detail:

Demo experiment #1 set-up

Demo experiment #1 results summary

The findings from the conjoint study provide quantifiable insights into the factors influencing attitudes towards human spaceflight, emphasizing the importance of mission duration, media capacity, training length, and cost.

Preferences for shorter mission durations, with a 3-day mission valued at $64,414,102.63, indicate a significant consumer inclination towards safety, cost-efficiency, and comfort.

The high valuation of media capacity, with a willingness to pay of $35,934,471.69, underscores the critical role of entertainment and connectivity in enhancing the spaceflight experience.

Training length is also a key consideration, with 7 weeks of training preferred, reflecting a balance between adequate preparation and manageable time commitment, valued at $25,598,299.52 for 5 weeks of training.

Cost sensitivity is evident, with a preference for lower costs, highlighting affordability as a pivotal factor in making space travel more accessible.

These preferences suggest that to foster positive attitudes towards human spaceflight, emphasis should be placed on optimizing mission duration, ensuring robust media capacity, providing reasonable training periods, and maintaining affordability.

Media and cost are the most important attributes

• 'Capacity for media' is the most important attribute with a relative importance of 51%, followed by 'Cost' at 34%

• This indicates that the ability to handle media content and the financial aspect of the product or service are the most critical factors for consideration.

• On the other hand, 'Mission duration' and 'Training lens', are not nearly as pivotal as media capacity and cost

Clear consumer preferences across attributes

• The most preferred mission duration is 3 days (1.95 partworth), indicating a preference for shorter missions, likely due to safety, cost, or comfort considerations.

• The availability of media during the mission is valued, as reflected by the strong negative partworth for the absence of media capacity (-2.47)

• 7 weeks of training is preferred (1.08 partworth), possibly reflecting a balance between adequate preparation and the time commitment required

• Cost is a significant concern, highlighting the importance of relative affordability in making space travel more accessible

Willingness to pay assessment across attributes

• The availability of both streaming and non-streaming media during the flight is a highly valued feature, with a willingness to pay of ~$36M.

• The length of training provided before the mission is considered worth investing in, with 5 weeks of training valued at ~$26M, suggesting that thorough preparation and safety are priorities for participants.

Demo experiment #2 set-up

Demo experiment #2 results summary

To foster a positive attitude towards interplanetary travel among the public, it is essential to emphasize the existential benefits, such as the expansion of human civilization and ensuring long-term survival.

Demonstrating success in sustainable and ethical space missions is also critical, as this aligns with the public's strong preference for ethical and sustainable exploration efforts.

Addressing the public's desire for transparency by openly reporting on risks and challenges and providing detailed plans for long-term visions and goals can further enhance support.

Additionally, highlighting how space exploration can solve Earth-based problems and foster international collaboration addresses the public's preference for tangible Earth benefits and global unity.

However, it is crucial to proactively address concerns about the ethical and environmental impacts of space exploration and the fear of neglecting Earth's pressing issues, as these are significant barriers to support.

Understanding and addressing these key concerns, which hold a relative importance of 47%, alongside showcasing the potential benefits (24% importance), are fundamental strategies for increasing public support for interplanetary travel.

Human long-term survival and successful missions key to changing public perception

• The highest valued feature is the potential benefit of expanding human civilization and ensuring long-term survival, indicating a strong emphasis on the existential and forward-looking benefits of space exploration.

• Demonstrated success in sustainable and ethical space missions is also highly valued and crucial for public support.

• Transparent reporting on risks and challenges and detailed plans for long-term visions and goals are the most sought-after information, highlighting a desire for openness and clear, strategic planning in space missions.

• However, there are significant concerns about the ethical and environmental impacts of space exploration and the potential for neglecting Earth's pressing issues, indicating a critical view of prioritizing space over immediate terrestrial concerns. These preferences suggest that while there is enthusiasm for the potential benefits of space exploration, support is contingent on ethical conduct, transparency, and the promise of direct benefits to Earth.

Subconscious understands consumer sentiments on competition

Demo experiment #3 set-up

Demo experiment #3 results summary

To design an optimal commercial human spaceflight program for the affluent market, the findings suggest focusing on several key aspects. Firstly, leveraging a strong brand is crucial, with SpaceX being the most preferred brand, indicating that brand reputation and trust significantly influence consumer choice.

Secondly, the program should aim for a maximum altitude of 400km, as this is significantly more desired than lower altitudes like 100km, highlighting the consumer's preference for a more immersive and authentic space experience.

Additionally, offering unique and high-quality experiences, such as space exploration and exceptional views of Earth, is vital, as these aspects are highly valued.

Clear consumer preferences across attributes

• Strong brand preference and trust in SpaceX for space travel experiences, with SpaceX leading significantly, followed by Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic.

• Maximum altitude is also a critical feature, with a preference for reaching 400km, suggesting that consumers value a more profound and authentic space experience.

• Cost per ticket also plays a significant role in preferences, indicating a sensitivity to cost but a willingness to invest in the experience.

• Experiences offered, such as space exploration and views of Earth are also important, with consumers showing a preference for the adventure and unique perspectives space travel offers.

New product design: SpaceX could offer new human spaceflight experiences - Current offering maximizes product appeal

Subconscious.ai augmented the SpaceX space tourism MVP in minutes. No wasted iterations. We found that good press coverage, not price, is the primary driver in consumer preference for SpaceX. Our prescriptive recommendations are causal, testable, and falsifiable.

Interested in learning more about predicting consumer preferences, accessing previously inaccessible populations, and how your team can use Subconscious.ai for market research? Let’s talk!

If you’d like to try out the Subconscious.ai platform for your market research needs, you can run 2 free experiments by clicking “Get Started” here.