What is the Causal Revolution?

In The Book of Why, the authors discuss the causal revolution as a scientific shakeup that embraces rather than denies our innate cognitive understanding of cause and effect. The secret behind it is a mathematical framework described as a calculus of causation, which seeks to understand cause-effect relationships.

The calculus of causation consists of two languages:

1. Causal diagrams, to express what we know, and

2. A symbolic language resembling algebra, to express what we want to know.

How does this affect my marketing team?

One of the crowning achievements of the Causal Revolution has been to explain how to predict the effects of an intervention without actually enacting it. The Causal Revolution can help market researchers in two significant ways:

1. Identifying true drivers of profitability: Causal AI enables researchers to pinpoint the actual factors that impact a company's bottom line. For instance, Bergfreunde, a European online retailer, used causal AI to understand the drivers of profit margins in their e-commerce business. This approach allows researchers to move beyond simple correlations and understand the underlying mechanisms that drive business performance.

2. Optimizing marketing mix and ROI: Causal AI helps researchers accurately measure the effectiveness of different marketing channels and tactics. For example, eBay discovered through causal analysis that the true ROI of advertising clickthrough was negative 63%, contrary to conventional AI estimates of 1400%. This insight allowed market researchers to allocate marketing budgets more effectively and improve future returns on investment.

Subconscious.AI is a causal research AI platform, building on this framework to understand and forecast consumer behaviors. Think of all the times you’ve asked “why” people behave the way they do. Subconscious.AI helps you to explore the reasons behind decisions and the outcomes they produce.

By using causal market research, Subconscious AI empowers researchers to ask the right questions and uncover insights that drive real impact, without the limitations of traditional surveys and focus groups. By combining synthetic users and causal AI, our platform produces high-quality research - faster and more actionable than ever.

What types of questions can I ask?

Using the Subconscious.AI platform requires you to pose causal questions. Causal questions go beyond simple observation - they explore the underlying why behind human behavior. Subconscious.AI helps frame and answer these questions, revealing the factors driving human decisions. To formulate a causal question, you can also use these tips: 

Start by identifying the behavior you're interested in. 

Then, dig deeper - what factors influence that behavior? For example, ask "What causes individuals to buy a generative AI product?" or "How does immigration policy affect decisions to immigrate?"

You can also choose to enter your own prompt and select “I’m feeling lucky” to run the experiment immediately. Or, use the “Brainstorm questions” function to help you generate causal questions to ask.

How does this all work? 

A traditional language model analyzes only the data that’s explicitly provided. It follows fixed rules or algorithms, producing predictable outputs based on predefined inputs. These models miss implicit factors and fail to capture the complexities of real-world situations, often overlooking hidden patterns and deeper insights.

Large Language Models are different. They don’t just answer questions - they help uncover the questions you should be asking. LLMs process vast amounts of diverse data, recognizing nuances and contexts that traditional models often miss.

Our LLM model goes a step further by incorporating RCT (Randomized Controlled Trials) best practices. This helps mitigate bias and ensures the insights generated are reliable and reflective of real-world behavior. It’s not just about more data - it’s about smarter, more balanced analysis.

That’s where Subconscious.AI comes in - we help you unlock these deeper insights to make better, data-driven decisions. Curious to learn more? Book a demo with us.

If you’d like to try out the Subconscious.AI platform for your market research needs, you can run 2 free experiments by clicking “Get Started” here.